Preseason Rankings
East Carolina
American Athletic
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.7#151
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace73.7#63
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#166
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#155
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 5.3% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.2% 4.1% 1.0%
Average Seed 10.4 10.1 11.1
.500 or above 24.1% 37.2% 15.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.3% 13.6% 6.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 25.7% 19.2% 30.1%
First Four0.8% 1.4% 0.4%
First Round2.6% 4.3% 1.4%
Second Round0.8% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Neutral) - 40.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 5
Quad 22 - 52 - 10
Quad 33 - 46 - 14
Quad 44 - 19 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 122   Indiana St. L 72-74 41%    
  Dec 05, 2020 270   Radford W 75-65 82%    
  Dec 07, 2020 253   UNC Wilmington W 79-70 80%    
  Dec 10, 2020 218   North Florida W 84-76 75%    
  Dec 16, 2020 65   @ SMU L 67-78 17%    
  Dec 19, 2020 249   James Madison W 86-77 79%    
  Dec 30, 2020 77   @ Wichita St. L 70-80 20%    
  Jan 09, 2021 97   South Florida L 67-69 45%    
  Jan 13, 2021 55   @ Cincinnati L 67-79 15%    
  Jan 16, 2021 145   Temple W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 20, 2021 97   @ South Florida L 64-72 27%    
  Jan 24, 2021 40   Memphis L 75-82 27%    
  Jan 27, 2021 111   @ Central Florida L 70-76 30%    
  Jan 30, 2021 98   Tulsa L 69-71 45%    
  Feb 03, 2021 18   Houston L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 06, 2021 40   @ Memphis L 72-85 13%    
  Feb 08, 2021 65   SMU L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 13, 2021 145   @ Temple L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 17, 2021 18   @ Houston L 64-80 9%    
  Feb 21, 2021 77   Wichita St. L 73-77 37%    
  Feb 27, 2021 98   @ Tulsa L 66-74 27%    
  Mar 04, 2021 111   Central Florida L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 07, 2021 55   Cincinnati L 70-76 31%    
Projected Record 9 - 14 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.4 3.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.3 1.5 4.1 4.8 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.9 5.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 19.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 4.2 6.8 7.6 5.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 27.0 10th
11th 2.0 4.0 4.7 3.6 1.6 0.4 0.1 16.5 11th
Total 2.2 5.5 9.1 11.6 13.2 13.0 11.9 10.1 8.1 6.0 3.7 2.5 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 48.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 26.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.2% 98.8% 28.7% 70.2% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
14-6 0.5% 85.6% 16.7% 68.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 82.7%
13-7 0.9% 60.0% 8.5% 51.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 56.2%
12-8 1.5% 44.3% 8.7% 35.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 38.9%
11-9 2.5% 22.5% 7.8% 14.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 15.9%
10-10 3.7% 8.5% 2.3% 6.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.4 6.4%
9-11 6.0% 3.3% 1.8% 1.4% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.8 1.5%
8-12 8.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.1%
7-13 10.1% 0.4% 0.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1
6-14 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.9
5-15 13.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 12.9
4-16 13.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.2
3-17 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.6
2-18 9.1% 9.1
1-19 5.5% 5.5
0-20 2.2% 2.2
Total 100% 3.1% 0.9% 2.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.9 2.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%